{"id":21191,"date":"2025-04-24T05:34:20","date_gmt":"2025-04-24T05:34:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=21191"},"modified":"2025-04-24T05:34:20","modified_gmt":"2025-04-24T05:34:20","slug":"us-10-year-treasury-holds-on-fed-stability","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/analysis\/us-10-year-treasury-holds-on-fed-stability\/","title":{"rendered":"US 10-Year Treasury Holds on Fed Stability"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/usd1-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16968\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>10-year yield held at 4.36%<\/strong>, with futures settling at <strong>110.83<\/strong> after testing an intraday high of <strong>111.55<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Trump softened rhetoric<\/strong> on Chinese tariffs but officials noted no formal talks are underway.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Treasury Secretary Bessent<\/strong> cautioned that no unilateral cuts are planned.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Trump\u2019s backing of Powell<\/strong> earlier this week helped calm bond markets amid Fed policy speculation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>The U.S. 10-year note opened Thursday\u2019s session around <strong>110.66<\/strong> and saw a brief push to <strong>111.55<\/strong> as early reports suggested the Trump administration <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/dDGMiGmpVD\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">may ease tariffs on Chinese imports<\/a><\/strong>. This move initially stoked risk appetite and supported bonds, as reduced trade friction typically moderates inflation expectations and boosts demand for Treasuries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, gains were quickly pared after <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ZrqF6VXZec\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent<\/a><\/strong> clarified that <strong>no formal talks with China had begun<\/strong>, and no unilateral decisions on tariff reductions were under consideration. This checked early optimism and prompted a <strong>pullback to 110.83<\/strong> by the close of the session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Political Signals and Bond Market Reaction<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets also reacted to <strong>Trump\u2019s earlier assurance<\/strong> that <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/tGboLqqxFw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Fed Chair Jerome Powell would not be removed<\/a><\/strong>, a move seen as maintaining central bank credibility amid political pressure for rate cuts. The signal helped bond investors regain confidence that monetary policy would remain data-driven rather than politically influenced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>After a relatively flat start, <strong>USNote10Y<\/strong> saw a <strong>sharp upside breakout<\/strong>, rallying to a session high of <strong>111.55<\/strong>. An aggressive slope in the 5- and 10-period moving averages supported the strong upward movement, confirming momentum strength. However, this spike proved <strong>unsustainable<\/strong>, as price quickly reversed and retraced below the <strong>30-MA<\/strong>, dipping to a low of <strong>110.64<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2026\/03\/1_image-28-1024x440.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-21192\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Picture: US10Y spikes to 111.55 before retreating; eyes now on whether bulls can reclaim the upper band, as seen on the <a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">VT Markets app<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Currently, the price is <strong>recovering modestly<\/strong>, with the MACD showing <strong>decelerating bearish momentum<\/strong> and potential for a crossover above the signal line. The price is consolidating just above the <strong>110.80 zone<\/strong>, hovering near short-term resistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A break above <strong>111.00<\/strong> could see renewed bullish pressure, while failure to reclaim the moving averages cleanly may result in a range-bound drift below <strong>110.90<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Looking Ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>With tariff talks in limbo and U.S. inflation data approaching, the Treasury market is likely to remain sensitive to <strong>policy headlines and <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/t5tTmLRuLu\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">trade negotiations<\/a><\/strong>. Traders will be watching closely for confirmation of any actual progress on U.S.-China relations, while <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/data\/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Friday\u2019s PCE inflation print<\/a><\/strong> may help clarify the Fed\u2019s rate path in coming months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a><\/strong><strong> and <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login?_gl=1*1azgbap*_gcl_au*NjE5NTE3MjY4LjE3NDQ2MDA3NDI.*_ga*MTY4OTgwNTU5Mi4xNzM2NzQ2MTgy*_ga_J26NL1ZVX7*czE3NDQ5NDQ0NTYkbzEyMCRnMCR0MTc0NDk0NDQ1NiRqNjAkbDAkaDA.\">start trading<\/a><\/strong><strong> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>US 10Y Treasury holds as traders weigh President Trump\u2019s softer tariff tone, clarified by the Treasury, and reassurance around Fed independence. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":64,"featured_media":16968,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[9,7],"class_list":["post-21191","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-dollar","tag-stocks"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":""},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21191","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/64"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21191"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21191\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16968"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21191"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21191"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21191"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}