US and Iran ended a second round of nuclear talks in Geneva. Both sides reported progress on guiding principles, but disputes remain over uranium enrichment, sanctions, and the scope of talks.
Iran held live-fire drills and partly closed the Strait of Hormuz during the talks. The strait carries about 20% of global oil flows, and this was described as the first such closure since a US military build-up in the region began.
Supply Signals And Opec Decisions
US supply data pulled the other way, as EIA figures showed crude inventories rose by 8.5 million barrels, the largest weekly build in a year. OPEC+ is leaning towards restarting production increases from April, with a meeting set for 1 March.
WTI opened Tuesday near $62.20 and rose 3.4% on the day. The move put price back above the 200-day and 50-day EMAs, with the 200-day near $62.43–$62.45 and the 50-day at $61.25.
Resistance is noted at $65.00 and the year-to-date high of $66.25, with $67.00 above that. The Stochastic Oscillator sits in the midrange zone.
Around this time last year, we saw oil prices whipsaw due to the uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva. Tensions were high as Iran conducted military drills, partially closing the critical Strait of Hormuz. This geopolitical risk created significant volatility for traders to navigate.
Market Backdrop And Trading Approach
Today, the landscape is different after a limited agreement was reached in late 2025, easing some of the harshest sanctions and allowing more Iranian oil onto the market. However, underlying regional tensions persist, creating a floor for prices as any flare-up could quickly threaten supply routes again. The market has priced in a fragile peace, but remains sensitive to any new developments.
Looking back to early 2025, we were contending with a massive 8.5 million-barrel weekly build in US crude inventories, which weighed heavily on prices. At that time, OPEC+ was also signaling a potential increase in production, adding to bearish sentiment. This supply glut acted as a significant headwind against the geopolitical fears.
In a stark contrast, the most recent EIA report for the week ending February 13, 2026, showed a surprise inventory draw of 2.1 million barrels, pointing to much stronger demand. Furthermore, OPEC+ agreed in December 2025 to hold production levels steady through the first quarter of this year, removing the threat of additional supply. These factors create a fundamentally stronger backdrop for oil prices than we saw a year ago.
From a technical perspective, this time in 2025 saw WTI fighting to reclaim its 200-day moving average near $62.43. The price action was choppy and uncertain, suggesting a market in consolidation. It was a pivotal moment where momentum could have broken in either direction.
Now, the chart shows a much clearer bullish trend, with WTI currently trading near $84.50, well above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Last year’s consolidation near $62 served as a base for the strong uptrend we have experienced since. The current technical picture is one of strength and established positive momentum.
Given that fundamentals now show tighter supply and technicals confirm a strong uptrend, we believe traders should position for further gains. Buying call options or establishing bull call spreads for April or May expiration offers a defined-risk way to capitalize on potential moves toward the $90 handle. This strategy takes advantage of the current bullish momentum.
However, the persistent risk of geopolitical headlines means volatility can re-emerge quickly. We would advise using this strength to also consider protective strategies, such as purchasing out-of-the-money put options. This can hedge long positions against any sudden, unexpected downturns caused by a breakdown in diplomacy or new regional conflict.
