WTI crude rose to about $96.00 on Friday, up 3.55% on the day. The move followed fears of a longer Middle East conflict involving Iran and possible disruption to global supply.
Sentiment briefly improved after Tehran allowed several oil tankers to pass, but it then weakened as strikes continued. US President Donald Trump said talks were going “very well”, while Iranian officials said they were waiting for Washington’s response on ceasefire conditions.
Rising Military Risk In The Gulf
The Wall Street Journal reported the Pentagon is considering sending 10,000 more troops to the Middle East. This increased concern about disruption or closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil shipments.
ING said about 8 million barrels per day are already affected, with more supply still exposed to potential disruption. Oil prices stayed volatile and closely tied to diplomatic and military developments.
WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, a US-produced benchmark crude traded via the Cushing hub. Prices are driven by supply and demand, geopolitical events, OPEC decisions, the US Dollar, and weekly inventory data from the API and the EIA, which tend to be within 1% of each other 75% of the time.
With WTI crude now trading around $88, we see a familiar geopolitical premium returning to the market. Recent naval standoffs near the Strait of Hormuz are raising fears of supply disruptions. This situation mirrors the uncertainty that caused prices to spike well into the $90s back in 2025.
Options Strategy Amid Elevated Volatility
The upward pressure is not just from headlines, as supply fundamentals appear tight. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a surprise crude inventory draw of 3.1 million barrels this week, countering forecasts of a build. This comes as OPEC+ has signaled it will maintain its current production cuts through the next quarter, keeping supply constrained.
Given these upside risks, we should be considering long positions through derivatives. Buying near-term call options on WTI futures could capture gains from a sharp price spike. For a more cost-effective approach, bull call spreads would allow us to profit from a moderate price rise while capping both risk and upfront cost.
We must remain aware that prices are highly sensitive to diplomatic news, just as they were in 2025. Implied volatility is elevated, meaning options are expensive, but this also reflects the high degree of uncertainty. Any signs of de-escalation could quickly erase the current premium, making it essential to manage position sizes carefully.
