USD/CAD held firm on Friday, trading around 1.4170 even as the US Dollar eased back, leaving the pair at its highest level since April 2025. The Canadian Dollar was pressured by softer domestic data after Statistics Canada said Retail Sales rose 0.5% in April, down from a 0.9% gain in March and under the 0.6% forecast. Ex-autos sales increased 0.1% versus expectations of 0.7%, while March’s figure was revised to 1.2% from 1.4%.
Policy divergence also weighed on the currency. The Federal Reserve reiterated its aim of returning inflation to 2%, and nine of 19 policymakers projected at least one rate rise this year, as May CPI accelerated to 4.2%, the fastest since April 2023. Markets priced a 70% chance of a September hike, according to CME FedWatch, while DXY traded near 100.81 after earlier reaching 101.13, its highest since May 2025. In Canada, the BoC said US tariffs argue for lower rates, though energy costs could still warrant consecutive policy-rate increases; WTI was around $75.50 a barrel, the lowest since 5 March.
Policy Divergence and Drivers for USD/CAD
The divergence between the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve is creating a clear opportunity for us. With the BoC having cut its key rate to 4.50% earlier this month while the Fed holds steady at 5.50%, the interest rate difference strongly favors the US dollar. This policy gap is the main driver we see for the USD/CAD pair in the coming weeks.
Canada’s weak retail sales report for April reinforces our bearish view on the loonie. The fall in oil prices, with West Texas Intermediate now trading around $75.50 per barrel, further pressures the commodity-linked currency. These factors give the Bank of Canada more reason to consider another rate cut later this year, weighing on the Canadian dollar.
Strategic Outlook and Key Levels
In contrast, the US economy appears robust, with May’s inflation data coming in at 4.2%. This supports the Fed’s hawkish stance, with markets now pricing in a 70% chance of a rate hike by September. We see traders continuing to favor the greenback as long as this outlook remains.
Given this outlook, we believe buying USD/CAD call options is a prudent strategy. This allows us to profit from a continued move higher in the pair toward the 1.4200 level and beyond. Using options provides upside exposure while defining our maximum risk on the trade.
Looking ahead, the next Canadian inflation report will be critical, as another soft reading would cement expectations for more BoC rate cuts. Historically, the 1.40-1.42 range has been a significant zone, and a sustained break above it could attract more momentum buyers. We will be watching price action closely around these levels.
