The US dollar was rangebound ahead of July US CPI data due at 12:30 GMT. The US Dollar Index (DXY) was flat near 99.85 at the time of writing. Fed funds futures implied 50% odds of a 25bp September increase to a 3.75–4.00% target range, down from 75% at end-July, and the curve priced just over 40bp of cumulative tightening over the next 12 months.
US Inflation Data and Policy Expectations
Forecasts pointed to headline CPI rising 0.1% m/m after -0.4% in June, while easing to 3.4% y/y from 3.5%. Core CPI was seen up 0.2% m/m versus 0.0% previously, with the annual rate slipping to 2.5% from 2.6%.
Upcoming Market Drivers and Geopolitical Developments
Markets were also set to take direction later in the week from July PPI figures due on Thursday, while Reuters cited an Iranian source saying Tehran and Washington were not discussing an extension of the ceasefire and that the US returning to an MoU, with a timetable for commitments, was among topics under discussion.
