US Macro Data and Market Implications
US October CPI on Tuesday and PPI on Friday are the week’s main macro releases. Consensus looks for headline CPI to rise 0.3% month on month and core CPI 0.2%, while annual inflation is seen edging up to 3.9% from 3.7% in September. October payrolls rose by 165,000, with unemployment at 4.1% and prior months revised higher. That mix has pushed market pricing towards a 78% probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase in December. Gold has moved back to the 4,100 area, close to a short-term downtrend line; failure there could refocus attention on 4,025 and the one-year low at 3,870, while a break higher points to 4,200 and 4,240, with MACD and RSI suggesting limited momentum.
UK and Eurozone Economic Developments
In the UK, Thursday’s preliminary Q3 GDP and September monthly GDP are expected to show around 0.7% quarterly growth versus 0.5% in Q2, after an MPC vote of 8–1 to raise Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%, with one member favouring 50 basis points and the Bank projecting inflation near 5% by mid-2027. GBP/USD trades near 1.3390, with levels including 1.3400 (50.0% Fibonacci from 1.3675 to 1.3140), then 1.3470 (61.8%) and 1.3500. Eurozone Q3 GDP’s second flash on Friday follows 0.4% quarterly and 1.3% annual growth, and comes alongside France’s 4 November rejection of the revenue section of its 2027 budget and ECB succession milestones, with Lagarde due to leave on 7 February 2027 and EUR/USD ranging 1.1100–1.1270, near the 20-day SMA at 1.1190.
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