US CFTC data shows oil non-commercial net positions at 172.7K. The previous figure was 141.3K.
We are seeing a significant jump in bullish sentiment for crude oil, with net long positions held by speculators rising to 172,700 contracts from 141,300. This is a strong signal that informed market participants are betting on higher prices in the near term. This buildup suggests upward price pressure is likely to continue over the next few weeks.
Speculative Positioning Signals Strength
This growing optimism is backed by tightening fundamentals. Recent Energy Information Administration (EIA) data shows US crude inventories have drawn down for three consecutive weeks, sitting just below the five-year average for late February. This tightening of the physical market provides a solid foundation for the speculative buying we are now observing.
Furthermore, OPEC+ ministers have recently signaled a strong consensus to roll over their current production cuts into the second quarter of 2026. Looking back at the price volatility we saw in 2025, that uncertainty was often tied to worries about supply discipline. The current unified front from the producer group removes a major headwind for prices.
We recall how choppy the market was through much of 2025, where economic slowdown fears capped any significant rallies. However, the latest global manufacturing PMI data for January 2026 came in stronger than expected, suggesting industrial demand is finally turning a corner. This is a key difference from the weaker demand picture we faced last year.
Given this data, traders should view any price dips as potential buying opportunities. Establishing long positions through futures or buying call options to capitalize on upward momentum appears to be the prudent strategy. Shorting this market looks increasingly risky until we see a major shift in this bullish speculative positioning.
