AUD/USD rose to 0.6938 rather than moving lower, but the move lacked follow-through. In the near term, it is expected to trade between 0.6890 and 0.6940.
Over a one- to three-week period, the pair is projected to remain within a wider 0.6835 to 0.6955 range. The broader technical view still points to downside risk.
Key Near Term Range
If AUD/USD breaks the 0.6850 to 0.6870 support area, it may move down towards 0.6765. The report notes the article was produced using an AI tool and reviewed by an editor.
The Australian dollar’s advance has not gathered much momentum, so we expect it to trade in a range between 0.6890 and 0.6940 in the coming days. The latest US inflation data from late March came in slightly higher than expected at 2.9%, making the US dollar more attractive and capping any significant Aussie gains. This suggests a sustained move above the 0.6955 resistance level is unlikely in the near term.
We have seen a significant shift in central bank outlooks since the last rate adjustments back in 2025. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest meeting minutes from April 1st signaled a clear easing bias, with markets now pricing in a 60% chance of a rate cut by August. This contrasts with the Federal Reserve, which appears comfortable holding rates steady for now.
Adding to the pressure, key commodity prices have weakened, with iron ore recently dipping below $100 per tonne for the first time this year on revised Chinese growth forecasts. This is a significant change from the stronger demand we saw for most of 2025, removing a key support for the currency. The overall environment points to a lower AUD/USD over the next one to three weeks.
Support Breakdown Risk
For traders, this suggests positioning for a potential breakdown. Buying put options with a strike price near 0.6850 offers a way to capitalize on a breach of this key support zone. Selling out-of-the-money call spreads above 0.6955 could also be an effective strategy to collect premium while the pair remains range-bound with a downward bias.
The critical level to watch is the 0.6850/0.6870 support area. A decisive break below this could trigger a sharp decline toward our next target of 0.6765. This move could accelerate if this month’s Australian employment figures show any unexpected weakness.
