UK GDP rose 0.4% quarter on quarter in 2Q26, with business investment and consumer spending underpinning the expansion. Since 4Q24, ICT equipment investment has added 0.45 percentage points to GDP, alongside a total GDP increase of 1.9%, and this channel is expected to keep supporting output in the near term if AI-related spending holds up.
Growth is expected to cool in 2H26 as temporary supports fade and headwinds build, including the unresolved US-Iran conflict, the waning impact of one-off boosts such as the World Cup and favourable weather, and uncertainty around potential Autumn Budget tax rises. Restrictive monetary policy and utility price increases are also set to weigh on real incomes. GDP growth is forecast to average 0.1% quarter on quarter in 2H26, in line with the BoE’s July MPR, putting full-year 2026 growth at 1.1%, compared with a 0.7% forecast made at the end of 2025. UK activity data has so far remained resilient to the crisis.
Outlook For UK Assets As Growth Momentum Fades
We suggest derivative traders prepare for a notable shift in UK market momentum as we head into the autumn. While the recent 0.4% growth in the second quarter of 2026 was impressive, the underlying drivers like ICT and AI investment are hitting a temporary ceiling. With growth expected to cool to just 0.1% in the second half of the year, we believe the pound is highly vulnerable to a downward correction.
To capitalize on this projected slowdown, we recommend establishing short positions on Sterling (GBP/USD) through put options. Historically, similar growth drop-offs, like the post-summer slowdowns seen in previous years, have triggered a swift repricing of Bank of England rate expectations. Swaps markets are currently underpricing the likelihood of more aggressive rate cuts, making receiver swaps and long gilt futures highly attractive.
Rising Volatility And Positioning Strategies
Furthermore, we must look at the looming Autumn Budget and rising energy costs, which resemble the fiscal pressures of late 2022 when gilt volatility surged. Implied volatility in FTSE 100 options is currently trading at relatively cheap levels, presenting a prime opportunity to buy straddles. By positioning for an expansion in volatility, we can protect portfolios against both geopolitical shocks from the Middle East and sudden domestic policy shifts.
