Gold bars weighing 1 kilogram and 100 ounces have been classified as tariff subject by the US Customs Border Protection agency as of July 31. If correct, this would impose a 39% tariff on gold bars of these sizes imported from Switzerland, a notable gold supplier.
In the first quarter, Switzerland sent 450 tons of gold to the US, anticipating possible future tariffs. This uncertainty led to a rise in the gold price on the Comex and increased gold holdings.
Market Reactions
Recent developments have rekindled uncertainty, affecting market reactions. US gold futures on the Comex surged to $3,534 per troy ounce, and the price gap between Comex and London’s spot market exceeded $100.
General investment advice suggests that financial decisions should be based on thorough research. Past warnings remind about the high risks involved in open market investments, including possible total losses.
We are seeing a significant dislocation between US gold futures and the global spot price. This is a direct result of the potential 39% tariff on Swiss gold bars announced at the end of July 2025. The main strategy for us to consider in the coming weeks revolves around this price gap, or spread.
The risk of a physical delivery squeeze on the Comex is growing, which would support US prices. Looking back at the market turmoil in 2020, logistical disruptions created a similar, though temporary, premium for New York gold. We are now seeing CME Group data for this week show registered gold stocks falling by 15%, a sharp decline that echoes that period.
Options Strategies
This level of uncertainty makes options strategies particularly attractive. The Cboe Gold Volatility Index has surged to 28.5, a level not seen in three years, signaling expectations of large price moves. We can use instruments like straddles to profit from this volatility, regardless of whether the price ultimately breaks higher or lower.
However, we must also plan for a rapid collapse of this spread if the tariff threat is removed. News that the Swiss government has formally requested consultations with the US is a key development to watch. A diplomatic resolution or a legal challenge could cause the premium on Comex futures to evaporate almost instantly.
We should also watch for shifts in demand toward gold products not subject to this tariff, such as smaller bars or gold coins. This could create smaller, secondary trading opportunities away from the main 1kg bar market. There may also be spillover effects into silver, as some traders look for a cheaper precious metal alternative.
