The United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index for November aligned with predictions at 2.8%. This measure tracks price changes for goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy.
In foreign exchange, the USD/JPY pair is retracting due to US Dollar weakness and a focus on Japan’s CPI and BOJ decisions. Simultaneously, EUR/USD shows an increase, driven by a weakening US Dollar and solid US data.
Gold Market Dynamics
Gold prices are nearing record levels, surpassing $4,900 as risk appetite remains elevated. Geopolitical concerns and US economic data continue to influence the gold market’s direction.
Bitcoin experiences modest growth, trading beyond $90,000 despite facing selling pressure from ETFs. Ethereum holds steady at around $3,000, with broader crypto market volatility currently influenced by declining institutional interest.
The political landscape shifted as President Trump retracted NATO tariff increases initially proposed during the Greenland controversy. This move has eased geopolitical tensions, affecting global markets and risk assessments.
Ripple manages to maintain a support level over $1.90, showing a positive short-term technical outlook amid volatile market conditions. This comes in light of ongoing inflows into ETFs despite cautious retail sentiment.
November Core PCE Analysis
The November Core PCE data, which came in at 2.8%, confirms our view from late 2025 that inflation remains sticky well above the Federal Reserve’s target. This reading is consistent with the stubborn inflation we saw for much of 2023 and 2024, suggesting the Fed has little room to ease policy. We should therefore maintain positions that benefit from a higher-for-longer interest rate environment, such as long positions in interest rate swap futures.
The US Dollar has weakened despite this data, which points to a market more concerned with risk sentiment than Fed policy for now. The recent de-escalation of US-EU trade tensions over Greenland has boosted risk appetite, pushing pairs like GBP/USD towards the 1.3500 level. In the coming weeks, we can use call options on these currencies to ride the momentum while limiting our downside risk if dollar strength unexpectedly returns.
Gold’s rally to nearly $4,900 an ounce, even as risk appetite improves, is a clear signal of its decoupling from traditional market dynamics. This move is being fueled by persistent dollar weakness and central bank buying, which, according to the World Gold Council, hit record levels in 2025. Traders should consider using collar strategies to protect profits on existing long positions, as the precious metal is now in price discovery territory.
In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin is holding near $90,000, but the mentioned ETF selling pressure is a significant headwind. We saw similar institutional outflows create major volatility following the launch of spot ETFs back in early 2024. Given this uncertainty, purchasing straddles on Bitcoin, which profit from a large price move in either direction, could be a prudent way to trade the expected turbulence.
