The USD/CHF currency pair fell around 1% to its lowest point on Monday, with the Swiss Franc pushing the pair to 15-year lows. The USD/CHF has been in a consistent downtrend since November 2025, trading below the 50 and 200 Exponential Moving Averages, now standing at 0.7683 after a strong bearish candle.
On the 1-hour chart, USD/CHF broke down from the range between 0.7750 and 0.7790, suggesting continued bearish momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator is oversold, indicating potential for a short-term bounce, but if unable to recover, targets may move lower. A shift to neutrality would require moving back above 0.7792.
The Swiss Franc Influence
The Swiss Franc ranks among the top ten traded currencies, with its value influenced by market sentiment and the Swiss National Bank. The Franc’s role as a safe-haven currency is supported by Switzerland’s stable economy and political neutrality.
Decisions by the Swiss National Bank, which pursue low inflation, have strong impacts on CHF value. Economic data from Switzerland and Eurozone monetary policy significantly influence the Franc, given the close economic ties between Switzerland and the Eurozone.
We see the strong downtrend in USD/CHF continuing, with sellers firmly in control below the 0.7700 level. For the coming weeks, we believe buying put options with strike prices near 0.7650 or 0.7600 offers a clear, risk-defined way to position for further declines. The next major target for this move appears to be the recent low around 0.7604, and potentially the 0.7535 level after that.
This view is supported by Switzerland’s January 2026 inflation data, which at 2.1% remains just above the Swiss National Bank’s target. Given the SNB’s history of decisive action, as we saw with their policy shifts throughout 2025, we don’t expect them to signal any policy easing soon. This contrasts with recent US data showing moderating job growth, which continues to put pressure on the dollar.
Trading Strategy and Market Outlook
We should be mindful that the hourly chart is deeply oversold, which could trigger a brief price bounce toward the 0.7750 resistance area. Instead of shorting immediately, a more patient approach could be to sell bear call spreads, with the short call strike placed above 0.7790 to profit if the pair stays low or bounces weakly. This strategy benefits from both a falling price and time decay, especially if the pair consolidates before its next move lower.
We also see stability in the neighboring Eurozone, with recent German manufacturing numbers showing a slight improvement. Historically, a stable Eurozone provides an anchor for the Swiss Franc, reinforcing its strength against other currencies. This macro environment further weighs on the USD/CHF pair, as dollar weakness becomes the path of least resistance.
