The AUDUSD recently moved above the 100-day moving average, as well as the 100-bar and 200-bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart. This upward momentum shows a more positive outlook, with buyers gaining control by the end of the trading session.
The currency’s break above the 100-bar MA at 0.6494 and the 200-bar MA at 0.6504 on the 4-hour chart has bolstered trader confidence. These averages, previously limiting price action, now serve as short-term support. Maintaining a position above this range supports the continuation of upward movement.
Upcoming Technical Targets
The focus now turns to upcoming technical targets. The initial hurdle for the AUDUSD is at 0.6541, a recent swing level. A break beyond this point could lead the pair towards a swing high of 0.6567 from two weeks ago.
Further resistance lies between 0.6586 and 0.6595, a region that has previously reversed the price. A strong move past this resistance would shift attention to the July peak — the year’s high — at 0.6625. Reaching this point would indicate a more longer-lasting positive trend, confirming the breakout traders are watching for.
We have seen a clear shift in momentum with the AUDUSD moving above the key 0.6504 level, turning what was resistance into a new support zone. This suggests buyers have taken control after defending the 100-day moving average earlier in the week. Any dip toward the 0.6494-0.6504 area should now be viewed as a potential buying opportunity.
This technical strength is reinforced by recent fundamental data. Australia’s quarterly CPI data, which we saw on August 26, 2025, came in hotter than expected at 3.1%, suggesting the Reserve Bank of Australia will be in no hurry to cut interest rates. Meanwhile, the latest US jobless claims figures ticked higher to 245,000, adding to a narrative of a cooling American economy.
Favorable Backdrop From Commodities
We are also seeing a favorable backdrop from commodities, which are a major driver for the Australian dollar. Iron ore prices have firmed up, pushing back above $120 per tonne on signs of stabilizing industrial demand. This provides an external tailwind that supports a stronger Aussie dollar against the greenback.
Given this bullish technical and fundamental picture, traders could consider buying call options to capitalize on further upside. A strike price around 0.6550 with a late September 2025 expiration would provide exposure to a potential move toward the 0.6567 and 0.6595 resistance levels. The clear support around 0.6500 provides a well-defined risk level for the strategy.
Looking back at the range-bound trading that characterized much of 2025, a decisive break above the 0.6595 resistance zone would be a significant development. Such a move would confirm a broader bullish breakout, shifting our focus to the year-to-date high at 0.6625. Traders using futures may see a close above this zone as a signal to add to long positions.
