US shares fell as tariff uncertainty rose. The DJIA dropped about 700 points (1.45%), the S&P 500 fell 0.6%, and the Nasdaq lost 0.7%.
The US raised a Section 122 global tariff from 10% to 15% after the Supreme Court struck down tariffs under IEEPA. The 15% levy lasts up to 150 days unless Congress extends it, and Section 301 probes are planned.
Market Volatility And Tariff Risk
Novo Nordisk shares fell up to 16% after CagriSema missed in the REDEFINE 4 trial versus Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide. Weight loss was 20.2% after 84 weeks for CagriSema versus 23.6% for tirzepatide, while Eli Lilly rose about 3%.
Oracle and Palantir fell about 4%, and American Express dropped roughly 5–7%, as the iShares Software ETF fell about 20% year-to-date. Nvidia rose about 1.7%, with expected earnings of $1.53 per share on $65.7 billion revenue.
Gilead will buy Arcellx for $7.8 billion, and Arcellx rose nearly 80% to $115 per share plus a $5 CVR. Gold rose over 1% to about $5,168 per ounce, silver neared $88, Bitcoin fell to about $65K, and Domino’s posted $1.54 billion revenue with 3.7% US same-store sales and shares up about 5%.
With new global tariffs creating uncertainty, we are seeing a spike in market fear. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has already jumped over 20% this week to trade above 22, a level reminiscent of the trade war jitters we saw back in 2019. We should consider buying SPY puts or VIX call options to protect against further downside as trading partners react.
The massive 16% drop in Novo Nordisk creates a clear opportunity against Eli Lilly, which is now the undisputed leader in the weight-loss space. Implied volatility on Novo options has surged past 60%, suggesting more sharp moves are expected. We can use this divergence by buying puts on NVO and calls on LLY, creating a pairs trade that profits as this performance gap widens.
Software Rotation And Earnings Setup
We are seeing a historic rotation out of legacy software, with tech funds reporting over $5 billion in outflows from the sector just last month. The selloff in names like Oracle and American Express likely has more room to run, making puts on the IGV software ETF an attractive hedge. For Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday, we should prepare for a major move in either direction by using a straddle, which lets us profit from the volatility itself.
Gilead’s acquisition of Arcellx is a long-term bet on cell therapy, not a short-term trade. While the deal is now priced into Arcellx, the modest dip in Gilead’s shares might offer a cheap entry point for long-dated call options. The key catalyst will be the FDA’s decision on anito-cel in December, so we should be looking at options that expire in early 2027.
The flight to safety is clear, with gold pushing past the key psychological level of $5,100 per ounce. We should add exposure through calls on the GLD and SLV ETFs as long as tariff tensions remain high. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to act like a risk asset, now down nearly 15% year-to-date, making puts on crypto-related ETFs a good way to hedge this risk-off environment.
