SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) has increased over 1000% since its IPO last year, maintaining its strong performance. An Elliott Wave analysis provides insights into this momentum-driven breakout, suggesting a structured path to higher target prices.
The analysis begins with SNDK’s rally from its low in April 2025, marking Wave I at $286 in November 2025. Following this, a three-wave pullback marked Wave II at $183, before Wave III propelled the stock to new highs in a nesting structure.
The bullish sequence is still underway, with a target zone between $440 and $501. The advance is expected to occur through a series of third and fourth waves.
Traders should utilise strategic entries during daily pullbacks, expecting all short-term pullbacks to attract buyers. Corrections are likely to form in patterns of 3, 7, or 11 swings. The ongoing primary daily cycle should push prices beyond $500.
Using Elliott Wave methodology, traders should enter the market after the completion of a 3, 7, or 11-swing correction. The proprietary Blue Box system identifies high-probability entry zones, providing clarity and positioning traders to capitalise on the anticipated bullish trend.
The bullish sequence in SNDK is unfolding as we projected back in late 2025. With the stock now trading near $415, the powerful Wave III structure we identified is clearly in control. This momentum follows last week’s announcement of a new partnership to supply next-generation flash memory for AI data centers.
Last week’s Q4 2025 earnings release acted as a major catalyst, where the company reported a 35% year-over-year increase in enterprise storage revenue, beating all estimates. We are seeing validation in the market, as open interest in the March 2026 $450 strike call options has more than doubled in the last five trading days. This indicates traders are actively positioning for a continued move toward our price targets.
For derivative traders, this means any short-term weakness should be viewed as a buying opportunity. The primary strategy should be purchasing call options or call spreads on dips, as the underlying trend remains powerfully bullish. A brief pullback toward the ten-day moving average, currently near $400, would be an ideal entry point.
Implied volatility has settled to 38% after the earnings event, down from pre-announcement highs of over 55%, making long call strategies more affordable now. Traders can consider buying at-the-money call debit spreads to define their risk while capturing the expected upside. This approach aligns with the forecast of nesting third and fourth waves before the next major thrust higher.
This price action is reminiscent of the technical patterns we saw in leading AI-related hardware stocks during the 2025 rally. Those charts also showed powerful impulses followed by brief, orderly pullbacks that provided excellent entry points. The current setup in SNDK fits this historical blueprint for a strong breakout continuation into the $440 – $501 zone.
