New Zealand’s exports fell to $6.21B in January, down from $7.65B in the previous period.
The recent report showing New Zealand’s exports fell to $6.21 billion in January is a significant signal for us. This sharp 18.8% decline from the previous month suggests lower international demand for the country’s goods. Consequently, this points to potential weakness for the New Zealand dollar (NZD) in the coming weeks.
Implications For Nzd Usd
We should consider positioning for a lower NZD/USD exchange rate. Buying NZD/USD put options with expiries in the next four to six weeks could be a direct strategy to capitalize on this expected downward pressure. This move is supported by recent data showing a slowdown in China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner, where manufacturing PMI has remained just below the 50-point mark indicating contraction.
This export weakness also impacts the outlook for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). While we saw inflation was still a concern at the end of 2025, this new data on a slowing economy could force them to adopt a more dovish tone. This might make interest rate futures, which bet on the RBNZ holding or even cutting rates later in the year, an attractive position.
Historically, we have seen similar situations, such as in the second quarter of 2024, when poor export numbers preceded a multi-cent drop in the kiwi dollar. Given Australia’s key commodity exports have been more stable, a long AUD/NZD position could also be a valuable hedge. This trade would benefit from the Australian economy’s relative strength compared to New Zealand’s.
