Intel shares fell more than 4% on Monday after the company announced an equity offering aiming to raise at least $15bn. Proceeds are earmarked mainly for its AI buildout, including AI compute, “physical AI”, purpose-built silicon, advanced packaging and external wafers. The deal includes an over-allotment option that would allow underwriters Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to buy an additional $2.25bn of common stock within the following 30 days.
Broader markets were close to flat, while oil rose over 3% at the start of the week as the Strait of Hormuz remained shut. In technical terms, Intel set a new lower low on 29 July and has been leaning on the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for support, having broken below that level within the past two weeks for the first time since 30 March. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was near 47, and the April gap would be filled at $70 per share, where the 200-day SMA is tracking.
Short-Term Downside and Trading Strategy
We suggest derivative traders prepare for short-term downside in Intel as the massive $15 billion stock dilution pressures the share price. Historically, large equity raises of this size dilute existing earnings per share by 5% to 10%, which almost always triggers a bearish reaction. With today’s 4% drop on August 10, 2026, the technical indicators are flashing clear warning signs that momentum has shifted to the sellers.
We believe the immediate target for Intel is the $70 mark, which would close the unfilled gap from April and test the crucial 200-day Simple Moving Average. Statistics show that unfilled daily stock gaps on major tech equities are closed within six months over 75% of the time, making a move down to $70 highly probable in the coming weeks. Traders should look at buying monthly put options with a $70 strike price to capitalize on this downward slide.
Macroeconomic Pressures and Risk Management
Macroeconomic pressures are also mounting, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has already pushed oil prices up by over 3% today. Rising energy costs historically squeeze semiconductor manufacturing margins, especially for energy-intensive fabrication plants like the ones Intel is building. We expect this double whammy of share dilution and energy inflation to accelerate the stock’s push toward its 200-day moving average.
For a safer play, we recommend implementing bear put spreads targeting the $70 to $75 range to keep premium costs low. Selling out-of-the-money call options above the 100-day moving average could also generate steady income as overhead resistance solidifies. Implied volatility is starting to climb, meaning option buyers should act quickly before premium pricing becomes too expensive.
