Turkey’s budget balance improved in November, showing a transition from a deficit of -223.2 billion to a balance of 169.5 billion. This change represents a noticeable shift in financial conditions for the country.
Exchange rates fluctuated with the USD sliding against major currencies, yet the EUR/USD held gains ahead of an active week. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD remained stable above 1.3350 as traders prepared for data and decisions from the Bank of England.
Activity in Other Markets
In other markets, gold prices rose to seven-week highs due to expectations of a Fed rate cut and geopolitical concerns. The Yen strengthened as the USD/JPY fell near 155.00 on positive Tankan Q4 survey data.
In the digital asset space, Solana is consolidating as spot ETF inflows neared $1 billion, suggesting an institutional interest in dip-buying. This financial backdrop indicates varied movements across different markets and currencies.
The recent Turkish budget data shows a dramatic shift to a surplus, which is a strong positive signal for the nation’s fiscal discipline. This unexpected surplus, the first of its kind in over two years, suggests a stronger Lira (TRY) is on the horizon. We should consider positioning for this by looking at options that benefit from a falling USD/TRY exchange rate in the coming weeks.
This fiscal improvement supports the central bank’s tight monetary policy, which has been in place throughout 2025. With inflation now down to 38% from the highs of over 75% we saw in 2024, the path for the Lira is looking much more stable. The reduced volatility means selling options, like strangles on the USD/TRY pair, could be a viable strategy to collect premium.
Global Currency Trends
Across the globe, the US dollar continues its slide against major currencies. The market is now pricing in over a 90% chance of another Federal Reserve interest rate cut in the first quarter of 2026, following the initial cut last month. This outlook suggests we should maintain a bearish stance on the dollar, using futures or call options on pairs like EUR/USD to capitalize on the trend.
The Japanese Yen, in particular, has been a major beneficiary of the weaker dollar. The strong Tankan survey data builds on the momentum we’ve seen since the Bank of Japan officially ended its negative interest rate policy back in March 2025. We believe the path of least resistance for USD/JPY is lower, making put options on the pair an attractive hedge or speculative position.
Gold is holding firm below its all-time highs, supported by bets on lower US interest rates and persistent geopolitical risks. While it hasn’t broken out, the environment is supportive of higher prices, especially as real yields in the US have fallen to nearly 0.5% in the last quarter. Using call spreads on gold allows for capturing upside potential while managing the costs of being long.
