TripAdvisor reported Q4 earnings of $0.04 per share, below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.15. This compares with $0.3 per share a year earlier, excluding non-recurring items.
The earnings surprise was -73.33%. In the prior quarter, earnings were $0.65 per share versus an expected $0.58, a +12.07% surprise.
Across the last four quarters, TripAdvisor beat consensus EPS estimates three times. Q4 revenue was $411 million for the quarter ended December 2025, 0.56% below the consensus estimate and flat year on year at $411 million.
TripAdvisor has exceeded consensus revenue estimates once in the past four quarters. The shares are down about 16.5% year to date, compared with a 1.4% rise for the S&P 500.
Current consensus forecasts call for EPS of $0.09 on $402.02 million in revenue next quarter, and EPS of $1.87 on $1.97 billion for the current fiscal year. The Internet – Commerce industry ranks in the bottom 27% of over 250 Zacks industries, with top-half industries outperforming bottom-half ones by more than 2 to 1.
Wayfair is due to report results for the quarter ended December 2025 on 19 February, with expected EPS of $0.64, up 356% year on year. Its revenue is expected to be $3.29 billion, up 5.4%, and its EPS estimate has been revised 5.3% lower over the past 30 days.
We see that TripAdvisor has significantly missed its earnings expectations for the fourth quarter of 2025. This large miss, a -73.33% surprise, is likely to put immediate downward pressure on the stock price in the coming sessions. For us, this signals a period of heightened volatility, especially given the stock is already down 16.5% year-to-date.
This performance aligns with recent data from the U.S. Travel Association showing a 3% dip in online travel bookings for January 2026 compared to the previous year. The market is clearly punishing companies that fail to meet expectations in this environment, as stocks with large earnings misses have historically underperformed for several weeks. We should anticipate a similar pattern here, creating opportunities for bearish positions.
Implied volatility for March and April options contracts has jumped to over 60%, a significant premium to its 52-week average. While buying puts seems like a straightforward bearish play, the high premium costs could erode profits. We might consider strategies like bear call spreads to capitalize on both the expected price ceiling and the eventual decay in volatility after this news is fully priced in.
Management’s commentary on the earnings call cited “macroeconomic headwinds impacting travel budgets,” offering little short-term optimism. Looking back at the company’s significant earnings miss in the second quarter of 2024, we saw the stock fall an additional 12% in the three weeks following the report. This historical precedent suggests any rebound is unlikely to be swift.
We should also note that the entire Internet-Commerce sector is currently out of favor. With competitor Wayfair set to report on February 19, any negative results there could create additional headwinds for the entire group. This reinforces a cautious or bearish stance on TripAdvisor in the near term.
