Gold and silver traded with a bullish bias as the US dollar weakened through the month, lifting XAUUSD and XAGUSD. Demand was framed around widening US fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury bill supply, alongside concerns about the US bond market. The text also referenced inflation pressure linked to tariffs and energy costs tied to the Iran war, elevated geopolitical risk beyond the Middle East, and portfolio shifts away from US assets. Central banks were said to be adjusting FX reserves out of USD into other currencies and gold, while price targets of $4,500 “soon” and $5,000 later in the year were cited.
Foreign Exchange Market Dynamics
In FX, attention turned to the FOMC the next day and UK CPI due tomorrow as key event risks for GBP pairs. EURGBP was described as seeing a sharp dip after a US Treasury report, and the UK claimant count was characterised as supportive for sterling. GBPUSD was presented as being in an uptrend while retracing towards a lower trendline.
Energy Market Developments
In energy, WTI and Brent were portrayed as headline-driven, with disruption around the Strait of Hormuz and a price jump linked to violence in Lebanon, alongside ongoing US-Iran tensions.
