CFTC data shows eurozone EUR non-commercial net positions fell to €9.3K from €21.1K in the previous reading.
The change indicates a reduction of €11.8K in net positioning over the latest period.
The recent CFTC data shows a significant pullback in bullish bets on the Euro, with net long positions falling by more than half to just €9.3k. This sharp decline signals that large speculators are losing confidence in the Euro’s strength against the dollar. For us, this is a clear warning sign that the prevailing trend may be turning bearish in the near term.
This shift aligns with recent economic releases, as February 2026 Eurozone inflation came in at a sluggish 1.7%, well below the ECB’s target. In contrast, the latest US jobs report showed stronger-than-expected wage growth, fueling expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady. We saw much stronger conviction in the Euro throughout 2025, when net long positions consistently held above the €40k mark even with mixed data.
Given this weakening sentiment, we should consider positioning for a potential decline in the EUR/USD exchange rate over the next few weeks. This could involve buying put options on Euro futures or related ETFs to gain downside exposure. Establishing bear put spreads would be another prudent strategy to profit from a modest drop while limiting the upfront cost and defining our maximum risk.
