US economists at a major European bank expect October US CPI to cool after September’s sharp rise, forecasting both headline and core inflation at +0.20% month-on-month. September’s headline CPI had risen +0.65%, the fastest monthly pace in six months. The release is the final CPI print before the next Federal Reserve meeting, and markets are expected to focus on what it implies for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation.
October CPI Print and Its Implications
The October report will be atypical because no year-on-year CPI rate will be published. Last year’s government shutdown meant the October 2025 inflation level was not produced, leaving no comparable base for an annual calculation.
Additional Key Data Releases
Alongside CPI, the day’s US data calendar also includes the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) small business optimism index for October.
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