The euro weakened for a second day, pushing EUR/USD to weekly lows below 1.1650 in European trading after failing to hold above 1.1700 earlier in the week. The US dollar found support following stronger US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data, which reinforced the case for further Federal Reserve tightening. Even so, the implied probability of a September rate rise was little changed at 36%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, with markets awaiting Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday.
European Economic Data and ECB Developments
In the euro area, Germany’s GfK Consumer Sentiment Index surprised to the upside, echoing an upward revision to German Q2 GDP and a firmer IFO business climate reading earlier this week, but the currency’s response was muted. Later on Thursday, the European Central Bank is due to publish minutes from its latest meeting. Separately, background figures cited in the report put the euro’s share of global foreign exchange turnover at 31% in 2022, with average daily trading above $2.2tn; EUR/USD was estimated at 30% of all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY at 4%, EUR/GBP at 3% and EUR/AUD at 2%. The ECB’s inflation reference point is 2%.
