EUR/USD remains under pressure as France’s National Assembly starts debating the revenue section of the budget on Tuesday, moving from tax measures and fiscal adjustments towards expenditure cuts. The vote is framed as a test of whether Marine Le Pen’s left-wing opposition blocks the revenue bill or whether Prime Minister Lecornu uses Article 49.3, which would open the way to a no-confidence motion. Against this backdrop, widening French–German yield spreads are flagged as a potential drag, with 1.1100 in view; a break below 1.1050 would shift attention to 1.0900, while any relief bounce would still need a daily close back above the 20-day SMA and 1.1320.
Precious Metals and Inflation Outlook
Gold is holding a floor near 4,130 ahead of US CPI on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT, with headline inflation forecast at 3.6% y/y versus 3.4% previously and core CPI seen at 2.5% from 2.4%. Fed commentary has played down an October 25-bps hike, but an upside surprise could push bullion towards 4,130 again, with 4,070 and then 4,000 below.
US Equities and Earnings Season
In equities, the US500 is consolidating near its 7,844 record high as Q3 earnings begin Tuesday, with major US banks reporting before the open; levels flagged include 7,900 and 8,040 on strength, while 7,685 plus the 20- and 50-day SMAs are watched against a deeper break below 7,600.
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