EUR/USD eased to around 1.1215 in early Asian trading as the euro softened on renewed fiscal and political strain in France. The spread between French and German 10-year government bonds pushed beyond 150 bps, marking its widest level since the Eurozone debt crisis in 2011. France also saw clashes between police and protesters, while ECB President Christine Lagarde said France should address structural issues via domestic fiscal policy. Elsewhere, Spain is heading to a snap general election on 29 November, adding to uncertainty across the bloc.
In the US, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh avoided signalling future rate moves, and pricing implies an 83.9% chance of unchanged rates later this month, up from 49% a month earlier, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. A bank forecast still looks for two further 25 bp ECB hikes—December and March 2027—taking the deposit rate to 3%, while flagging modest medium-term upside for longer euro yields but scope for a near-term pullback. Warsh’s remarks scored 5.6/10 versus a 6.1/10 historical average on FXS Speechtracker, as the FXS Fed Sentiment Index held at 127.51 after a 0.00-point move. Technically, RSI sits at 37.5, with resistance near 1.1270, 1.1440 and 1.1465, and support around 1.1100.
French-German Bond Spread and Eurozone Political Risk
keywords: French German bond spread 2011 crisis 150 bps option volatility EURUSD
search “French German yield spread 2011 peak” “OAT Bund spread 2011”
EUR/USD Technical Momentum and Volatility
search “EUR USD RSI below 40 statistics return” OR “EURUSD Bollinger band breakout probability”
Start trading now — click here to create your real VT Markets account.
