The Netherlands’ Consumer Price Index (CPI), not seasonally adjusted, fell to 2.4% year-on-year in January. It was 2.8% in the previous period.
This shows annual consumer price growth eased in January. The change was a drop of 0.4 percentage points.
Eurozone Disinflation Outlook
The drop in Dutch inflation to 2.4% reinforces the broader trend of disinflation we’re seeing across the Eurozone. This data, following last week’s softer-than-expected industrial production figures from Germany, gives the European Central Bank more room to consider easing its monetary policy. We are now pricing in a greater than 60% chance of a first rate cut by the June ECB meeting.
In response, we should look at interest rate futures, as they provide a direct way to trade these expectations. The bid for June and September 2026 Euribor futures contracts has already strengthened, indicating the market is moving to price in lower rates sooner. This pattern is similar to what we observed in the second half of 2025 when speculation about the end of the hiking cycle first began to build momentum.
This easing expectation is likely to put pressure on the Euro, particularly against the dollar, as the US Federal Reserve appears to be on a slower path to cut rates. The EUR/USD exchange rate has already dipped below 1.08 this morning on the news, a key technical level. We see value in buying near-term EUR/USD put options to position for a potential move towards the 1.06 range seen late last year.
For equities, a more dovish ECB is a positive signal, especially for growth-oriented and rate-sensitive stocks.
AEX Positioning Implications
We should consider call options on the AEX index, as Dutch multinationals often benefit from a weaker Euro and lower borrowing costs. The index is already up nearly 1% in early trading, with tech and consumer discretionary names leading the gains.
