The US dollar rose for a fourth week, returning to levels last seen in April 2025 as markets continued to price further Federal Reserve tightening, with geopolitics and firmer crude oil also supportive. The US Dollar Index (DXY) extended its advance above 102.00 and moved through its 200-week SMA. The US diary runs from the NFIB Business Optimism Index on 13 October through ADP Employment Change Weekly, Existing Home Sales and the Monthly Budget Statement, then MBA Mortgage Applications, the Inflation Rate, the Fed Beige Book and an API update on crude oil inventories. Initial Jobless Claims, Producer Prices, Business Inventories, Retail Sales and an EIA weekly report follow on 15 October, with Export/Import Prices, Industrial/Manufacturing Production, Capacity Utilisation and Net Long TIC Flows closing on 16 October.
Major Currency Movements and Economic Data Releases
EUR/USD slid to 18-month lows near 1.1160, while GBP/USD steadied around four-month lows near 1.3200 after a fourth weekly decline; Germany’s final Inflation Rate is due on 13 October, followed by Wholesale Prices, and the euro area publishes Industrial Production plus its final Inflation Rate and Balance of Trade. USD/JPY rose for a fourth week, and AUD/USD snapped a four-week losing streak but still failed to clear 0.7000; Japan releases Bank Lending, Producer Prices, Machinery Orders, Foreign Bond Investment, Capacity Utilisation and Industrial Production, while Australia has RBA Minutes, NAB Business Confidence, the Westpac Leading Index and a labour market report. Central bank speakers are scheduled from 12–17 October across the Fed, BoE, ECB, BoJ and BoC.
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