Dated Brent is reported at $141/bbl, linked to tight physical supply while flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain impaired. Scenario analysis sets a range for Brent from about $125/bbl to above $200/bbl, with inventories returning towards normal only gradually into late 2026.
Scenario A considers tolls on vessels using the Strait of Hormuz. Based on about 21,900 tanker transits, the average fee is estimated at about $520,000 per ship, which equals roughly $0.26/bbl.
Scenario Ranges And Market Tightness
Scenario B assumes the conflict runs through April into May, with controlled escalation and then a faster resolution. In this case, prices rise and demand falls due to higher prices and policy-driven consumption changes, with April averaging $125/bbl.
Scenario C assumes a sharper escalation, including possible US ground involvement and wider regional conflict, with a possible short-term closure of Bab el-Mandeb. Prices are modelled to average $150/bbl and may exceed $200/bbl, while stockpiling partly offsets weaker consumption.
The article states it was produced using an AI tool and reviewed by an editor. It is attributed to the FXStreet Insights Team.
With Dated Brent at $141/bbl, we are seeing the direct impact of impaired flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The physical market is severely tight, and the path forward now depends entirely on whether the regional conflict escalates or is contained. This uncertainty between a controlled situation and a wider war creates a difficult but clear trading environment for the coming weeks.
The market is on edge because around 21 million barrels, or 20% of global supply, pass through the strait daily. Current OPEC+ spare production capacity is estimated to be under 3 million barrels per day, which is not nearly enough to cover a full-scale disruption. This lack of a safety net means any further escalation will have an immediate and dramatic impact on prices.
Strategy Implications For Traders
This wide range of potential outcomes, from $125 to over $200 per barrel, suggests that owning volatility is the primary strategy. Options premiums are high, but long call spreads could be used to position for the explosive upside of a full-blown conflict while defining risk. Simple directional bets are extremely dangerous given the binary nature of geopolitical news.
We saw a similar price spike in 2008 when oil briefly hit $147/bbl before collapsing, but the dynamic today is different. The key lesson from the supply shocks of 2025 is that nations now prioritize energy security, meaning they will likely buy oil to stockpile even as prices rise. This creates a stronger floor under the market than we have seen in previous crises.
Even in a de-escalation scenario, prices are expected to average a high $125/bbl for the month as nations rush to rebuild inventories. Furthermore, a coordinated release from strategic reserves offers limited comfort, as U.S. stockpiles are near 40-year lows at just over 360 million barrels. This limits the ability of policymakers to cool an overheating market.
