Hedger Positioning and Speculative Extremes in Currency and Commodity Markets
Commercial COT Index extremes showed stretched hedger positioning in several markets. The Australian dollar hit 98% with Large Speculators net short -44,159 contracts after a -4,936 weekly shift, while price rose 1.22%. Natural gas printed 96% as specs stayed net short -203,503 and cut exposure by -6,368; prices gained 3.06%. Euro FX (89%) and the Canadian dollar (88%) both remained net short at -59,088 and -158,166 respectively, but weekly spec positioning improved by +922 and +15,196, alongside price rises of 0.92% and 0.74%. Platinum reached 85% with specs net long +13,039 despite a -501 change, while palladium at 83% kept specs net short -4,398 after -482; prices advanced 7.66% and 2.81%.
Price Movements and COT Index at the Low End
At the low end, gold and silver both scored 0%: specs were net long +222,189 in gold and +23,625 in silver, with weekly changes of +4,249 and -21, while prices rose 5.18% and 6.46%. Elsewhere, the Dollar Index fell 0.79% with spec net +19,079 (-2,330) and COT Index 13%, while WTI climbed 6.32% as spec net reached +122,090 (+22,894) and open interest held at 1,888,960 (0%). Copper slipped 0.40% with COT Index 2%, spec net +79,748 (-640), and open interest down 5% to 281,563.
