Commerzbank said January’s delayed US jobs report is unlikely to drive large moves in the US Dollar. Nonfarm Payrolls are expected at about 70,000, and unemployment is forecast to stay at 4.4%.
The bank said even a reading near 60,000 would fit a pattern of a weakening, but not collapsing, labour market. It said this would not justify major changes to interest-rate expectations based on the Federal Reserve’s employment goal.
Dollar Risks Beyond The Jobs Report
The bank said short-term Dollar moves can still be driven by key data releases. It said the main medium-term risk is uncertainty over future Federal Reserve policy under Kevin Warsh and concerns about the Fed’s independence.
It said the outcome on Fed independence may not be clear until spring. The article noted it was produced with help from an artificial intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.
The upcoming US labor market report is not expected to cause major movements in the dollar. Even a Nonfarm Payrolls number around 70,000, like we saw in the latest January 2026 release which came in at a modest 85,000, would simply confirm the ongoing trend of a cooling, but not collapsing, job market. This is unlikely to shift the Federal Reserve’s current interest rate path in any meaningful way.
The real issue for the US dollar stems from the political uncertainty we saw throughout 2025. We remember the heated debates in the spring of last year over the Fed’s future and its independence, which created significant volatility at the time. Those underlying questions about political influence on monetary policy have not gone away and remain the biggest medium-term risk.
Positioning For Later Spring Volatility
For traders, this means short-term volatility around data releases might be misleading. With the VIX index currently subdued near 15, it could be a good time to consider buying longer-dated options to hedge against a sudden spike in currency volatility later this spring. This is less about betting on the direction of the next jobs report and more about insuring against the larger, unresolved political risks.
Therefore, important data will continue to influence short-term dollar fluctuations, but these are secondary concerns. The core risk remains the question of the Fed’s independence, a sword of Damocles hanging over the greenback. The answer to this will become clearer as we move through the next few months, making political headlines as important as economic data sheets.
