Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the US unemployment rate appears to be stabilising after the strong January Nonfarm Payrolls report. She said the labour market looks to be finding a healthy balance.
Hammack said consumer spending is holding up and is being driven by higher-income households. She repeated that the Federal Reserve aims to return inflation to its 2% target.
Policy Appears Near Neutral
She said the current federal funds rate is “right around neutral” and that rates are not putting much restraint on the economy. She said it is good for the Fed to keep rates unchanged and that there is no need to fine-tune policy now.
Hammack also said US government debt is on an unsustainable path and must be addressed. The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment, and mainly uses interest rates to meet these aims.
The Fed holds eight policy meetings each year via the Federal Open Market Committee, which includes 12 officials. Quantitative easing increases credit and usually weakens the US Dollar, while quantitative tightening reduces bond reinvestment and is usually supportive for the US Dollar.
Based on the view that policy is around neutral, we should not expect any interest rate changes in the near future. This suggests a period of stability, with the Federal Reserve likely to remain on hold through the next several meetings. The market is reflecting this, with current pricing from the CME FedWatch Tool showing an over 95% probability of rates remaining unchanged at the March 2026 meeting.
The data supports this patient stance, as the labor market is finding a healthy balance while inflation remains stubborn. With the latest January 2026 unemployment rate holding steady at 3.8%, there is no urgency to cut rates to support jobs. However, the most recent Consumer Price Index reading of 2.9% is still too far from the 2% goal to consider easing policy.
Market Focus Shifts Beyond The Fed
From our perspective in early 2026, this is a significant shift from the environment we navigated through 2025, which was defined by uncertainty over the end of the hiking cycle that began back in 2022. We recall the high volatility surrounding every inflation report and Fed meeting during that time. The current “on hold” message signals a calmer, more predictable policy path for the coming weeks.
This environment suggests that implied volatility on interest rate options will likely decrease or stay low. Strategies that benefit from stable rates and decaying time value, such as selling straddles on Treasury futures, could become more attractive. The MOVE Index, which measures Treasury market volatility, has already fallen to 85, well below the peaks over 130 we saw during the banking stress of 2023.
With the Fed on the sidelines, our focus must shift to other data for signs of economic direction. We will be closely watching consumer spending reports, especially after comments that spending is being held up by upper-income households. Any sign of weakness there, or stress in credit markets related to the government’s unsustainable debt path, could introduce volatility independent of Fed action.
