Citi Mexico’s September Expectations Survey shows most private economists looking for Banco de México to keep its policy stance steady, with the benchmark rate seen at 6.50% through at least end-2027, within a 6.25% to 6.75% range. The peso is projected to strengthen modestly before weakening later: USD/MXN is forecast at 17.50 at end-2026, while the end-2027 consensus is 18.07, lower than 18.24 in the prior survey. Inflation expectations for 2026 sit at 4% for both headline and core.
Outlook for Growth
Growth forecasts edge up slightly. GDP is expected to rise 1.3% in 2026, from 1.2% year-on-year, and to expand by 1.8% in 2027, unchanged from the previous survey, with estimates spanning 1.0% to 2.3%.
Banxico’s Mandate and Policy Operations
Banxico’s mandate is to preserve the peso’s value and keep inflation near its 3% target, the midpoint of a 2%–4% tolerance band, using interest rates as its primary instrument. The central bank meets eight times a year and typically convenes about a week after the Federal Reserve, with the USD rate differential shaping MXN dynamics.
