Chefs’ Warehouse (CHEF) reported Q4 adjusted earnings of $0.68 per share, above the $0.62 consensus estimate and up from $0.55 a year earlier. The result was an earnings surprise of +9.68%, after a prior-quarter surprise of +16.28% when $0.50 beat the $0.43 estimate.
Quarterly revenue was $1.14 billion for the period ended December 2025, beating forecasts by 4.38% and rising from $1.03 billion a year ago. Over the past four quarters, the company exceeded consensus EPS and revenue estimates four times each.
CHEF shares are up about 4.9% year to date, compared with a 1.4% gain for the S&P 500. The company entered the release with an unfavourable estimate revision trend and holds a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Consensus expectations call for $0.30 EPS on $1.02 billion in revenue next quarter, and $2.22 EPS on $4.39 billion in revenue for the current fiscal year. The Food – Miscellaneous industry ranks in the bottom 23% of more than 250 Zacks industries, with the top 50% outperforming the bottom 50% by more than 2 to 1.
Flowers Foods (FLO) reports on 12 February, with estimates of $0.16 EPS (down 27.3% year on year) on $1.23 billion revenue (up 10.9%).
We’re seeing a positive reaction to Chefs’ Warehouse beating both earnings and revenue expectations for the fourth quarter of 2025. The stock is indicated to open higher, which builds on its recent outperformance against the S&P 500 this year. This strong report clashes with the pre-release analyst sentiment, which had been trending negative.
Implied volatility was running high into this announcement, with the 30-day IV touching 45%, well above its 52-week average of 35%. Now that the news is out, we expect to see some of that premium disappear in a classic post-earnings IV crush. This environment could make selling options, such as covered calls or cash-secured puts, an interesting play for those expecting the stock to stabilize.
The bearish sentiment stems from broader industry headwinds, as the Food – Miscellaneous sector is underperforming. Recent data from the National Restaurant Association showed a 0.5% dip in traffic for January 2026, suggesting consumers may be pulling back on discretionary spending. This context is why we must listen carefully to management’s guidance on the earnings call for signs of slowing demand in the first quarter.
The immediate focus should be on how analyst estimates change over the next week, as this will either confirm or reverse the current Sell rating. A potential options strategy is to look at short-dated spreads to define risk, capitalizing on a potential drift higher if estimates are revised up. Conversely, if management’s outlook is cautious, puts could become attractive as the market re-evaluates the company’s strong 2025 performance.
