BNY flow data show EM EMEA equities leading performance, even as regional currencies and bonds have been weaker. Over the past week, which included the US Treasury buyback announcement, Poland, South Africa and Turkey ranked in the top five best-bought equity markets, and the same region has seen strong buying since just before the July Fed meeting. The bank frames the flows as country- and sector-driven rather than a single macro trade linked to US equity diversification.
The note argues that if low USD real rates, or broader weakness in global real rates, are influencing allocations, markets such as Poland, South Africa and Turkey can offer duration lift alongside dividend yields. It also points to limits on further cross-border accumulation of US equities, implying only marginal, selective scope for additional flows. A uniform “US debasement” theme is rejected, with EM Americas described as the logical beneficiary given heavier commodity exposure; that pattern appeared in Q1 in Brazil and Peru, alongside a surge in silver prices.
Country-Specific Opportunities in Emerging Market Derivatives
We suggest derivative traders avoid broad Emerging Market (EM) index options and instead target country-specific derivatives in the coming weeks. Broad EM beta trades are no longer effective as a uniform play against the US dollar. Instead, we are seeing isolated, powerful moves in specific markets like Poland, South Africa, and Turkey that require targeted options strategies.
For instance, South Africa’s market has seen renewed foreign interest following political reforms, with the FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index hovering near historic highs of over 84,000 points. Meanwhile, Poland’s economic growth is outpacing much of the Eurozone, with GDP growth expected to hit 3.5% this year, making bullish call spreads on Polish equities highly attractive. We recommend using structured options to capture these distinct regional growth stories rather than relying on broad-based EM equity ETFs.
Turkey also presents a unique case where aggressive monetary policy has kept benchmark interest rates high at 50%, offering incredible carry opportunities. For traders looking to hedge against US dollar volatility, we favor high-yield EM sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) and interest rate swaps over simple equity exposure. These fixed-income derivatives allow us to capture high carry yields while insulating portfolios from sudden swings in global equity sentiment.
Volatility Trading and Selective Approach
Given the lack of a uniform global theme, implied volatility across EM assets remains highly fragmented. We advise executing relative value volatility trades, such as buying options on outperforming EMEA assets while shorting volatility on lagging commodity-heavy Latin American indices. This selective approach allows us to exploit mispriced options premiums as country-specific factors continue to dominate the market.
