Australia’s CFTC data shows AUD non-commercial net positions increased to $52.6K. This was up from the prior $45.9K.
The latest positioning data shows a significant build-up in bullish bets on the Australian dollar. Speculators increased their net long positions to 52.6k contracts, a level we haven’t seen in several months. This indicates a strong conviction that the AUD is poised for further gains.
Policy Divergence Supports Aussie
This sentiment aligns with the growing policy divergence we observed between the RBA and the Federal Reserve throughout late 2025. While the Fed began its rate-cutting cycle, the RBA’s February 2026 meeting reinforced a hawkish stance, holding its cash rate at 4.35% to combat persistent inflation, which recently printed at a stubborn 3.8%. This widening interest rate differential makes holding the Aussie more attractive.
Underpinning this move is the continued strength in commodity markets, particularly iron ore, which has stabilized above $130 per tonne on solid demand from China. We saw China’s official manufacturing PMI for January 2026 come in at 51.1, marking the fourth consecutive month of expansion. This directly supports the Australian export outlook.
Derivative traders should consider positioning for further upside in the AUD/USD, which is currently testing the 0.6850 level. Buying near-term call options or establishing bull call spreads could be an effective way to capture this momentum. The increased conviction from speculators suggests a potential move towards the 0.7000 resistance we saw in early 2025.
Given the RBA’s firm stance, traders could also use options to define risk by selling out-of-the-money puts to collect premium. This strategy capitalizes on both the upward trend and the slightly elevated implied volatility. Remember how quickly sentiment reversed during the global growth scare in mid-2025, so defined-risk trades are prudent.
