Wave Principle Prediction
The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) was projected, using the Elliott Wave Principle, to peak around 26700. This target was based on a series of wave extensions, with an interim target of 26500 ± 250. The index peaked at 25827 for orange Wave-3, then dropped to 25504 for orange W-4, and peaked again at 25835 for orange W-5.
However, the index is now trading at 24780, below several warning levels, and it did not reach the anticipated target zone. The peak at 25835 is now viewed as gray W-i of a larger 5th wave, with a next target around 24600. Despite a new Advance/Declining line (NYAD) all-time high, backing a non-bear market, provided the index stays above the November 21 low of 23854, it could reach up to 28000+ by April 2026.
The prediction of a market top in late April 2028 is based on midterm election-year seasonality and Armstrong Pi-cycle turn dates. Past predictions forewarned corrections, like the 37% bear market in 2022. If the November 21 low holds, the Bull market may continue into next year. Dropping below may indicate a bear market onset.
Our previous view of the NASDAQ 100 has been adjusted, as the expected rally to the 26500 zone did not happen. The index peaked at 25835 and has since fallen to around 24780, breaking through several short-term support levels. We now see this decline as a corrective wave, with an ideal target near 24600.
Market Volatility And Strategy
For derivative traders, this presents a clear opportunity defined by key levels. The recent rise in market volatility, with the VIX climbing to 19 this week, makes selling cash-secured puts or put credit spreads with strikes below 24500 an interesting strategy for those betting the correction is temporary. This approach allows for collecting premium while waiting for the market to find its footing.
The most critical level we are watching is the November 21 low of 23854. A decisive break below this point would signal that a more significant downturn, possibly a new bear market, is already underway. Traders should consider buying puts or establishing bear put spreads as a hedge or a speculative play if the index approaches and fails to hold this support.
This market hesitation is happening as recent economic data creates uncertainty for 2026. The November 2025 Consumer Price Index report came in at 3.1%, slightly hotter than anticipated, causing some to question if the Federal Reserve can remain as accommodating as expected. We are still in a period of broad market strength, as evidenced by the Advance/Decline line recently hitting a new all-time high, but these inflation concerns are weighing on sentiment.
If the 23854 low holds, we can anticipate another major rally into next year, with a potential target of 28000+ by late April 2026. This timing aligns with historical midterm election year seasonality and cyclical models that have correctly identified major turning points in the past, including the significant peak in late 2021 that preceded the 2022 bear market. The current setup suggests the next few weeks are crucial in determining whether the bull market has one final surge left.
