The EUR/GBP pair remains stable at around 0.8810 during the early European session. Subdued UK GDP growth and a weakening labour market suggest a potential shift towards lower interest rates by the Bank of England (BoE).
UK’s unemployment rate reached 5%, the highest since early 2021, with declining wage growth. This backdrop leads to speculation of a possible BoE rate cut to 3.75% in December, pending further economic insights from the Autumn Budget and inflation figures.
Uk Consumer Price Index Forecast
The UK Consumer Price Index is predicted to rise by 3.6% year-over-year in October, with the core index at 3.4% for the same period. Positive inflation surprises could support GBP, posing a short-term challenge for EUR/GBP.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained interest rates since June 2025, which could continue into the next year. Analysts anticipate the ECB’s pause in their rate-cutting cycle, as they maintain a cautious economic stance.
The Euro, used by 20 EU countries, is the second most traded currency globally, with 31% of forex transactions in 2022. The ECB’s decisions on rates, inflation, and economic data heavily influence the Euro’s value.
Outlook on Eur Gbp Pair
With the EUR/GBP pair holding steady near 0.8810, the key factor we are watching is the growing expectation of a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut. Market pricing now implies an over 85% probability that the BoE will lower rates in its December meeting. This is driven by clear signs of a cooling UK economy.
The case for a weaker pound is supported by hard data from recent months. We saw the UK economy grow by a mere 0.1% in the third quarter of 2025, and the unemployment rate has ticked up to 5%, a high we have not seen since early 2021. This sluggish performance gives the BoE a strong reason to stimulate the economy by cutting interest rates.
Traders should be focused on the UK inflation data scheduled for release tomorrow, November 19th. The market expects a headline CPI of 3.6%, and any number significantly higher than this could cause a temporary spike in the pound. This could present an opportunity to position for the bigger trend.
On the other side of the pair, the European Central Bank (ECB) remains on a steady course, having held its key interest rates since June 2025. Eurozone inflation, while down from its peaks, remains sticky enough at around 2.8% to prevent the ECB from considering rate cuts just yet. This policy divergence between a dovish BoE and a neutral ECB underpins a bullish outlook for EUR/GBP.
For the coming weeks, we believe that any strength in the pound should be viewed as temporary. Derivative traders could consider buying EUR/GBP call options with expiry dates beyond the December BoE meeting to capitalize on the expected rate cut. A surprisingly hot UK CPI print tomorrow might offer a more attractive entry point for such positions.
