USD/CHF slipped 0.20% in the North American session on Tuesday. It traded at 0.7733 and tested support at the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 0.7723, while the US Dollar rose against most peers except the Swiss Franc.
The pair peaked near 0.7766 after moving back above the 20-day SMA three days earlier. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) showed fading upward momentum.
Key Levels And Momentum
If USD/CHF holds above the 20-day SMA and breaks above 0.7750, it could test 0.7800. Further resistance levels are the 50-day SMA at 0.7845 and the 100-day SMA at 0.7911.
If the pair falls below the 20-day SMA and 0.7700, the February 10 swing low at 0.7629 becomes the next level to watch.
The USD/CHF is testing a critical support level at the 20-day moving average around 0.7723. Given the broader strength in the US Dollar, this test against the Swiss Franc presents a clear decision point for traders in the coming weeks. The pair’s inability to rally despite positive US data suggests underlying strength in the Franc.
For those expecting the US economy to continue outperforming, buying call options with a strike price above 0.7750 could be a viable strategy. This view is supported by recent US jobs data from January which showed continued labor market tightness, and inflation figures last year in late 2025 that prompted the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance. A successful break higher would target the 0.7800 level first.
Options Strategies And Scenario Planning
Conversely, if we believe Swiss inflation remains under control, the Swiss National Bank will have little reason to weaken its currency. Recent data shows Swiss CPI holding steady at 1.9%, well within the central bank’s target range. In this scenario, a break below 0.7700 could prompt traders to buy put options, targeting the February low of 0.7629.
We saw a similar technical setup in the third quarter of 2025, where the pair consolidated for several weeks before a sharp move downward. This history suggests that volatility could increase significantly if the 0.7723 support level fails to hold. A straddle or strangle options strategy could be used to trade this potential spike in volatility.
The fading momentum seen on the Relative Strength Index indicates that any immediate upward move might struggle. Therefore, a cautious approach is to wait for a daily close either decisively above 0.7766 or below 0.7700 before committing to a larger position. This confirmation would reduce the risk of being caught in a false breakout.
