S&P 500 (EPH) and Nasdaq (ENQ) futures stayed within Thursday’s ranges ahead of the 8:30 US GDP and inflation release. Both contracts were described as balanced, with focus on whether price can hold beyond set “gate” levels after the data.
For EPH, Thursday defended the central pivot at 6866.50, but gains were capped at the upper gate 6893–6909. Price briefly moved above the gate to 6923, then fell back and traded between 6866.50 and 6893–6909.
Key Levels And Gates
By Mid-London, EPH was near 6889.50, with a shelf around 6889–6893 below the upper gate. A break and hold above 6893–6909 puts 6979.50 in view, with 6923, 6936 and 6952 as nearer reference points.
If EPH drops below 6866.50, attention shifts to 6851–6842. Acceptance below 6842 points to 6803, with 6834, 6827 and 6818 watched on the way.
ENQ traded near 24975, with value/POC building around 24900 and a decision pivot at 25051. Levels include an upper gate at 25134–25186, an upper range at 25405, and a lower range at 24744.
Acceptance above 25051 and then 25186 targets 25228, 25269, 25321 and 25405. Rejection under 25051 keeps focus on 24934, 24897, 24861 and 24816; a break below 24744 targets 24705–24680 and 24579.
Risk Off Shift After Data
The GDP and inflation release on Friday triggered the downside scenario, as the market interpreted the data as a risk-off catalyst. The Core PCE figure, a key inflation metric, came in hotter than expected at 0.5% month-over-month, surprising the consensus which had forecast 0.3%. This confirms the “wait and see” positioning was a warning of downside risk rather than a setup for a breakout.
As a result, we saw S&P 500 futures lose the critical 6851–6842 gate, and the Nasdaq broke decisively below its 24744 support line. These levels, which previously acted as a floor, should now be treated as a ceiling of resistance in the coming sessions. Any rally back toward these zones that fails to gain acceptance will likely be viewed as a shorting opportunity.
This data has significantly altered the outlook on Federal Reserve policy, with futures markets now pricing out the probability of a rate cut in the first half of the year. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which had been quiet around 14, spiked to over 19, reflecting a sharp increase in the cost of portfolio insurance. This indicates that traders are preparing for wider price swings and greater uncertainty over the next month.
The market’s reaction is reminiscent of the inflation scares we navigated during the third quarter of 2025, where similar data surprises led to a swift 7% correction in the major indices. That period taught us that the first move down is often not the last when a major catalyst shifts the narrative. We must respect that the market has transitioned from a balanced state to a defensive one until proven otherwise.
For derivative traders, this means adjusting strategy away from expecting upside expansion. Selling call credit spreads with strikes above the new resistance at 6900 for the S&P 500 capitalizes on both the firm ceiling and the now-elevated volatility premium. Similarly, buying protective puts is more viable now as the market shows clear directional risk toward lower targets like 6803.
