Hedera’s HBAR token has experienced a severe downturn, declining over 70% from its peak of nearly $0.39 earlier this year. Hedera operates a decentralised public network using a unique hashgraph consensus mechanism. Despite its technology, current technical aspects are of greater importance.
The descending trendline, acting as a ceiling, has contributed to a steady decline in price, following a step-like pattern that trend traders monitor. HBAR is currently hovering just above the $0.095-0.10 zone, considered a crucial support level for potential swings.
Even if HBAR manages a bounce, significant challenges remain for bulls, including reclaiming $0.125 and overcoming the descending trendline. A break in the support zone of $0.095 poses a risk, as further support is not clearly visible.
Traders considering a long position should monitor bullish price actions and look for a strong daily close above $0.105 with substantial volume. Stops should be set below $0.09, targeting the $0.125 resistance. For those with a bearish outlook, a decisive break below $0.095 on volume would warrant consideration of short positions, as the overall downtrend persists.
We see that HBAR is testing a critical support zone between $0.095 and $0.10 after a brutal decline from its highs earlier in 2025. This area represents a line in the sand, and the coming weeks will likely determine its direction for the first quarter of 2026. The descending trendline from the peak remains the most significant barrier to any sustained rally.
Derivative data shows that Open Interest in HBAR perpetual futures has climbed over 15% in the last two weeks, indicating that traders are positioning for a volatile move. Furthermore, funding rates have recently turned slightly negative on several major exchanges, suggesting an increase in short positions betting on a breakdown from this support. This could fuel a short squeeze if buyers manage to defend the $0.10 level.
For those anticipating a bounce, buying call options with a strike price near $0.12 could provide leveraged exposure while defining risk. A more aggressive strategy involves entering long futures positions if we see a strong daily close above $0.105, with a mandatory stop-loss just below $0.09. The primary target for such a trade would be the $0.125 resistance area.
Conversely, if the broader market weakness persists, a breakdown below $0.095 could trigger a sharp sell-off. Traders could prepare for this by purchasing put options or planning short futures entries on a high-volume break of that support. Looking back at similar market structures in late 2024, a failure to hold such a key psychological level often led to a rapid 20-25% drop before finding the next support.
The recent enterprise adoption news regarding a major supply chain platform building on Hedera has so far failed to move the price, showing just how heavy the selling pressure is. Given that implied volatility has risen to a 90-day high, option premiums are expensive. This makes strategies that sell volatility, such as short strangles, appealing for traders who believe HBAR will remain range-bound between its key levels.
