Nasdaq futures transitioned through the Asia session into London and then the New York opening, rebuilding above the intraday pivot. This followed a bounce from the daily central pivot in the prior session.
The Asia recovery was anchored by the January sixth Point of Control, aiding the London transition. This allowed the price to reclaim the central pivot and move into the upper-structure support band. This set the stage for New York’s opening push toward the upper resistance zone.
Price Action During New York Session
During the New York session, the price is testing whether it can hold above this higher band. Acceptance above this level would suggest a move into the next expansion phase. If it fails, focus would return to the central pivot, acting as the market’s midpoint.
The process detailed in the video underlines how predefined structures help guide Nasdaq futures movements. A structure-first methodology assesses the environment before price actions occur. Structure offers context, and price offers confirmation.
The Nasdaq is currently testing a critical upper band of resistance, creating a clear decision point for the market. A confirmed hold above this structure would signal the start of a new expansion phase higher. However, a failure to gain acceptance would shift our focus back to the central pivot, suggesting more range-bound, rotational trading is ahead.
Influence Of Economic Indicators
This technical test is happening as we process the latest CPI report from this week, which showed core inflation holding stubbornly at 3.1%. In response, futures markets are now only pricing in a 40% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March, a notable decrease from the 75% probability we saw at the end of 2025. This economic uncertainty is directly contributing to the battle between buyers and sellers at this key technical level.
For traders anticipating a breakout, a hold above this upper structure could be an opportunity to establish long positions, such as buying February call options. With major technology companies set to report their Q4 2025 earnings starting next week, positive guidance could provide the fuel for a sustained move higher. We are watching for confirmation that the market is willing to accept these higher prices before committing.
Conversely, if the market rejects this upper level, it suggests sellers are taking control and that the recent rally is losing steam. In this scenario, we would consider initiating bearish positions like buying put spreads that target the central pivot as a first objective. This view would be reinforced if upcoming retail sales data shows a slowdown in consumer spending.
Our primary approach in the immediate future is to let the price provide confirmation, as the structure has clearly defined the key levels. Waiting to see if the market accepts or rejects this upper band will be more prudent than trying to predict the outcome. The elevated VIX, currently near 14.5, suggests options premium can be used to structure trades that define risk, regardless of the market’s ultimate direction.
