FX option expiries for 11 August include a few to consider. For EUR/USD, the range is between 1.1600 and 1.1700. The currency pair has been trading within these boundaries since late last week.
With the US CPI report due soon, traders are not likely to make dramatic moves. These expiries may help maintain market stability today, but without major risk events, expect limited price movement.
NZD USD Support Levels
Additionally, NZD/USD has an expiry level at 0.5930. It is near the 100-hour moving average currently at 0.5932, potentially providing support during European morning trade. The 200-hour moving average is also close, at 0.5923.
Looking at the session ahead, we see a couple of notable option expiries. For EUR/USD, significant barriers are sitting between 1.0750 and 1.0800. With all eyes on the US CPI report due tomorrow, we don’t expect traders to push the market aggressively beyond these levels today.
The market is laser-focused on that inflation data, especially after July’s core inflation reading came in higher than expected at 3.8%. This has reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates firm, while the European Central Bank has signaled a more cautious stance. This policy difference is likely to keep a lid on the euro in the coming weeks.
We have seen this dynamic play out before, particularly when looking back at the 2022-2023 period. The Fed’s aggressive rate hikes back then pushed EUR/USD below parity for the first time in two decades. Derivative traders will remember this and may be positioning for a sustained period of dollar strength, even if less dramatic than in the past.
NZD USD 50 Day Moving Average
For NZD/USD, there is a key option expiry at the 0.6150 level. This strike price is conveniently located right by the 50-day moving average at 0.6145, which should provide a solid floor for the price in the near term. This combination of factors could limit any downside moves for now.
Fundamentally, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand signaled a continued pause in its last meeting, which has offered the kiwi some stability. This was supported by the latest Global Dairy Trade auction, which saw prices tick up by 1.2%. However, any strength in the kiwi will be tested by the market’s bigger appetite for US dollars ahead of major data.
