Australian Dollar at All-Time COT Extremes and Implications
The 43rd Commitments of Traders report of 2026 shows the Australian dollar at an all-time COT extreme in net positions for both Large Speculators and Commercials, an uncommon alignment between the two groups. The move comes after the currency has already been rising earlier in 2026, and the positioning data frames an established advance that could extend over the medium to longer term. The report treats such records as markers of unusual market conditions rather than precise timing tools, with scope for prices to consolidate or move unevenly even as positioning remains stretched.
Unusual Readings in Natural Gas, Sterling, and Copper
Natural gas also posts a rare reading, with Large Speculators at a 348-report COT extreme that reaches back to around 2020, roughly six and a half years ago, and is characterised as bullish over a longer horizon without confirming that a bottom is in place. Sterling shows a 21% change in Commercial net positions that produces a bearish short-term change signal, even as five-year COT extreme analysis points to a bullish longer-term backdrop. Copper, meanwhile, records a 22% change in Commercial net positions, suggesting near-term firming, but it has recently hit an all-time COT extreme that aligns with a bearish medium- to long-term risk, underscoring the need to separate change signals from historical extremes.
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