EUR/USD stayed on the defensive on Friday as the US Dollar firmed alongside US Treasury yields after the previous session’s pullback. France’s fiscal concerns weighed on the Euro, while attention turned to next week’s Federal Reserve and European Central Bank rate decisions. The pair was trading near 1.1190, down 0.22% on the day, and the US Dollar Index stood around 101.82 after hitting a three-week low of 101.45 on Thursday.
Central Bank Outlook and Market Pricing
Market pricing implies a pause in October, though expectations still allow for renewed tightening later in the year, with 25 basis points pencilled in for December. On the weekly chart, EUR/USD sat just above the 200-week SMA at 1.1105 but remained below the 100-week SMA at 1.1379 and the 50-week SMA at 1.1585. The pair also held under the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1355 and the 23.6% level at 1.1634, while the RSI printed 34, the MACD stayed negative, and the ADX was near 20. Support levels were flagged at 1.1130, 1.1105, 1.0905, 1.0585 and 1.0177, with resistance at 1.1355, 1.1379, 1.1585 and 1.1634.
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