Gold Range-Bound Ahead of US CPI as Yields and Dollar Bite, ETF Inflows Support

by VT Markets
/
Oct 15, 2026

Gold has spent two straight weeks trapped in a $4,050–4,200 per ounce band and has fallen for a third consecutive session ahead of September US inflation data. High oil prices, rising Treasury yields and a firm dollar are weighing on the metal, while ETF demand and continued central bank buying are limiting downside. Invesco said outflows from gold ETFs in the first half of the year were replaced by inflows in the third quarter; it added that ETF holdings reached 12-month highs and that September was the strongest month since 2022.

Bank of America argued that ETF flows tend to follow price action, warning that a downturn could trigger further redemptions and deepen selling; it projects an average price of $4,000 an ounce in the fourth quarter. The bank also pointed to softer official-sector appetite: in Kazakhstan, gold makes up 78% of reserves, but the central bank plans to cut that to 75% by year-end as it shifts towards US dollar-denominated Treasuries. Markets have pared expectations from three Fed rate rises over the next 12 months, and any read-through from US CPI and Kevin Warsh’s Bangkok remarks could test whether gold breaks below $4,000 or clears $4,200.

Gold Market Statistics And ETF Inflows

focused on gold market statistics ETF inflows central bank demand world gold council statistical data baseline

Central Bank Demand And World Gold Council Data

focused on gold market statistics ETF inflows central bank demand world gold council statistical data baseline

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