Oil markets stayed choppy as Brent slipped back from $103 to above $105, while European rates tracked the energy tape: 10-year gilts eased to 5.42% from last week’s 19-year high near 5.43%, Bunds were at 3.46% and France’s 10-year OAT at 4.85%, leaving the OAT-Bund spread unchanged at 137bp. The US moved to suspend diesel sanctions until April, aligning with a partial easing of Russia’s export ban and a proposed schedule of 300K tonnes initially, 500K in November and 1M thereafter, conditional on Ukraine halting refinery strikes. Separately, Kpler recorded zero visible commodity transits through Hormuz on Sunday versus 31 a week earlier; reports also cited three tankers mined since Saturday, while an airport strike killed 12 and injured 309.
European And US Economic And Policy Developments
Euro-area bonds kept a fiscal premium in place into France’s 2027 budget debate on Tuesday, with the revenue section already rejected in committee. In the UK, the Institute for Fiscal Studies put the funding gap at £35B, and S&P affirmed the AA rating with a Stable outlook. In US trade, Infineon was named in a Section 337 import complaint linked to AI server power components; in autos, the EU discussed a hybrid quota of 350K units in year one with 6% annual increases, versus roughly 302K imported in 2025.
Key Economic Data Releases
Data included Denmark CPI at 0.0% m/m and 2.2% y/y, the Netherlands trade surplus at €8.3B, Swiss sight deposits at CHF 456.4B, and South Korea’s October 1–10 days exports up 102.0% y/y with imports up 65.5% y/y.
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