The 39th Commitments of Traders report for 2026 shows Large Speculators at an all-time bearish net positioning extreme across soybeans, soybean oil and soybean meal, using futures and options data that runs back to 1995. The report frames this as a rare, sector-wide move rather than a single-market outlier. It also points to the risk that producer hedging could unwind if rising prices trigger margin pressure, as seen in October 2020 when positioning was close to an all-time bearish extreme yet the market kept rallying. A past analogue on the chart is described as a drop lasting around a month and a half after similarly stretched positioning.
Elsewhere, lean hogs register a bullish COT extreme while trading at the lowest levels shown on the five-year chart, following a bearish extreme in August; the current bullish reading is described as larger than prior comparable episodes. In FX, Commercials posted larger-than-average weekly positioning shifts of 29% in sterling and 28% in the New Zealand dollar. The New Zealand dollar set-up includes Commercials back above zero and ICOT scores in the 65–70 range, while sterling is also supported by ICOT and five-year positioning context.
Soybean Complex: Bearish Extremes and Short-Term Correction Risks
We are looking at an unprecedented setup in the soybean complex, where large speculators have pushed their net short positions to historic depths. Recent market data shows net short positions in soybean futures surpassing 180,000 contracts, driven by expectations of a record US harvest of over 4.58 billion bushels. Derivative traders should prepare for sudden price movements, but they must tread carefully around this historic extreme.
While some fear a massive short squeeze like the one in October 2020, we believe a downward price correction is more likely this time. Commercial hedgers have built their short positions gradually, meaning they are well-prepared for margin calls and less likely to panic-buy to cover their positions. We suggest looking for short-term put options to capture a potential price slide, while keeping in mind that any downward move might only last a month or two.
Lean Hogs and FX: Opportunity in Bullish Extremes
In contrast, lean hogs present a compelling buying opportunity as large speculators pivot to a bullish extreme. With hog futures trading at five-year lows near 70 cents per pound, recent CFTC reports show that net long positions have surged significantly. We recommend positioning for an upward move over the coming weeks, as this type of extreme bullish sentiment historically triggers a steady price recovery.
In the currency markets, we see a strong bullish signal for the British pound after commercial traders increased their net long positions by 29% in a single week. With GBP/USD hovering around the 1.32 level, this massive shift mirrors a similar setup from late last year that preceded a strong rally. We suggest buying sterling on minor dips or using call options to capture the expected medium-term upside.
The New Zealand dollar also shows a notable 28% shift toward commercial net longs, but we advise a more cautious approach here. Unlike the clear bullish setup in sterling, the kiwi’s five-year positioning chart remains messy and less developed. We recommend waiting for a clear technical bottoming pattern over the next week or two before committing to any long derivative positions.
