Markets moved through pre-defined technical levels, with the dollar index (DX.F) extending its rally after another daily close above 100. It has already taken out 100.37 and is pressing into the 100.67–100.72 bearish gap from 30 July; a close through that zone would shift focus to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 100.90 and then the 101.30–101.58 resistance band. The bullish set-up weakens on a daily close back below roughly 99.95–100, where support aligns with the upper edge of the rising channel.
Palladium (PA.F) met the downside objective from the 11 September bearish roadmap, with sellers reaching 1262 versus the 1266 target, and price has since slipped beneath the prior consolidation. A daily close below 1266 would keep pressure on, pointing to 1235 and potentially 1226, while a daily close above 1346 would negate that bearish path. Cocoa (CC.F) also completed both downside targets at 5344.75–5383.50 and 5253.95 after a bearish gap at 5663.50–5772, with any recovery still needing that gap to be closed for confirmation; wheat (ZW.F) hit the 700–706 support zone and broke below the 710–734 range, leaving the lower boundary of the green rising channel as the next reference if the close confirms the break.
U.S. Dollar Technical Outlook
We need to watch the U.S. Dollar closely as it tests the critical bearish gap between 100.67 and 100.72. If the bulls force a close above this gap, our next target is the 100.90 Fibonacci level, with an eye on the 101.30 to 101.58 resistance range last seen during mid-summer. However, if the Federal Reserve’s shifting policy stance triggers a pullback below the 100 psychological level, we should expect a correction down toward 99.95.
Palladium, Cocoa, and Wheat Market Focus
In the palladium market, the recent drop to 1262 met our initial downside target perfectly. If sellers can secure a daily close below 1266, we expect the downward momentum to target the 1235 and 1226 support zones. Given that the World Platinum Investment Council recently projected a consecutive annual deficit in the platinum group metals market, we must remain cautious of sudden supply-driven reversals above 1346.
Cocoa has successfully delivered on both of our bearish targets, bottoming out near the 5253 level. While today’s rebound suggests a potential trend reversal, we are waiting for a confirmed daily close above the 5663 to 5772 gap before committing to new long positions. This caution is justified as ICCO data still shows volatile grindings and tight global stock-to-use ratios keeping price swings wide.
Finally, wheat traders should focus on the crucial 700 to 706 support zone where sellers are currently testing buyer resolve. A confirmed daily close below the recent 710 to 734 consolidation range will likely signal a deeper decline toward the lower boundary of the rising channel. We will be monitoring the upcoming USDA crop progress reports closely, as any unexpected harvest pressures could easily accelerate this bearish momentum.
