TD Securities expects the Bank of Canada to keep the Overnight Rate at 2.25% through 2026, with the next policy decision due on 2 September following a media blackout starting Wednesday. Oil prices have largely normalised after moving above $100 a barrel in response to the US–Iran conflict, while headline CPI is near the top of the central bank’s 1–3% target range. The bank also points to narrower inflation breadth, muted core inflation momentum and well-anchored expectations as conditions consistent with a steady policy stance while excess supply is absorbed.
In TD Securities’ forecast, policy returns to neutral at 2.75% in 2027, delivered through two 25bp increases in January and March. The path assumes the inflation impulse linked to oil is assessed over time and that spillovers into domestic CPI remain contained, shaping expectations for the Canadian dollar and rates markets. Minutes from the relevant meeting are scheduled for publication on 16 September, and no other public events are flagged.
Rate Outlook and Market Positioning
With the Bank of Canada’s September 2nd meeting just around the corner, we expect policymakers to keep the overnight rate steady at 2.25%. Since the media blackout begins this Wednesday, August 26th, we should prepare for a quiet period with limited official guidance. Historically, when a central bank signals a prolonged pause like this, short-term interest rate markets tend to lock in flat expectations quickly.
We recommend derivative traders focus on Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average (CORRA) futures to position for this extended pause through the end of 2026. Any temporary spikes in implied yields present a strong buying opportunity for short-term rate contracts, as we do not anticipate any rate hikes until January 2027. Recent Canadian economic data supports this strategy, with core inflation measures remaining subdued even as headline CPI hovers near the 3% upper target limit.
Currency and Volatility Strategies
For currency traders, the Canadian Dollar is likely to remain range-bound because global oil prices have stabilized after surging past $100 a barrel earlier this year. We suggest selling CAD straddles or strangle options to capitalize on falling implied volatility as the market realizes the bank is comfortably on hold. This sideways trend is further reinforced by the gradual absorption of excess economic supply, which limits immediate upward pressure on the Loonie.
We should also look toward the release of the meeting minutes on September 16th to confirm this patient stance. Ahead of this release, short-volatility strategies on Canadian bond options remain highly attractive as the market digests the lack of near-term rate movement. Position sizes should still be managed carefully, keeping in mind that any unexpected geopolitical shifts could always rattle energy markets.
