DBS expects the Bank of Thailand to keep the policy rate unchanged at 1.00% at its August meeting, extending the pause that followed June’s unanimous decision. The bank’s assessment rests on an uneven growth backdrop: private consumption and foreign tourism are described as weak but stabilising, while goods exports and private investment are said to remain strong.
Inflation Trends and Policy Stance
On prices, headline inflation has eased for three consecutive months, slipping to 1.9% year on year in July after being near the upper end of the central bank’s 1–3% target range, a move attributed largely to lower energy prices.
Outlook and Fiscal Support
With inflation still within target and growth described as patchy, DBS sees room for the BoT to keep monetary policy unchanged and accommodative to support the recovery alongside fiscal policy, against a backdrop of ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.
